Recent estimates are that perhaps 200,000 homes may have been destroyed as a result of Katrina, the most damaging of recorded hurricanes. In comparison, Florida’s Hurricane Andrew destroyed about 28,000 homes in 1992. According to the American Red Cross, the combined effect of Hurricanes Jeanne, Ivan, Frances and Charley in 2004 was close to Andrew, with nearly 27,500 housing units destroyed.

It is clear that Katrina, and to a lesser extent, Rita, will exert influences on our economy for years to come. But what will those influences be?

Here are some areas to watch in the days and months ahead:

* Just when we thought we might get a break from rising home prices, the demand for building materials and related supplies is likely to drive construction costs higher. The National Association of Home Builders projects that immediate costs of clean up and repair will cause a spike in the demand for roofing and plywood. In addition, NAHB suspects repair will absorb available construction labor, pushing costs higher.

* Availability of some materials is likely to be affected as well. For example, New Orleans was an important import destination for cement, and those imports will now have to be diverted to other ports with proper facilities for handling this product.

* Actual rebuilding and replacement of damaged or destroyed housing will likely take much longer, and last over a number of years, the NAHB predicts. "In Dade County, the number of residential permits was 7.9% of the state total in 1993, the year following Hurricane Andrew. That was slightly lower than the county’s 7.9 percent share in 1991. By 1995, there was an increase to 12.0 percent of the state, but that number still wasn’t much greater than what might have been expected if there hadn’t been a hurricane."

* Areas surrounding the disaster zones have seen price increases, both in sales and rental, as fleeing residents upset the balance between supply and demand. Even as far away as here in Atlanta, some are beginning to see an impact in the already strengthening rental market.

DeKalb County spokesman Burke Brennan reports that through the end of September, their Displaced Relocation Service Center has assisted more than seven thousand heads of household who have sought relocation assistance. His statistics indicate that approximately half of these households do not intend to return to the gulf area, and are seeking permanent housing here.

In addition, bank volunteers helping evaluate the evacuees report that many of these new arrivals have credit scores in excess of 700, making them serious candidates for eventual home ownership.

While it’s too early to tell if this mass migration will seriously impact our overall housing market, it is something to watch.

Respected economist David Lereah of the National Association of Realtors sees three major changes on the horizon as a result of the storm’s fury:

* First, he believes that the storm’s impact will cause the economy to grow more slowly than was previously predicted, but that once the rebuilding effort gains momentum, the overall economy will get a lift.

* Second, Lereah predicts that "mortgage rates will rise more slowly as a result of post-storm economic conditions to accommodate the losses of homes, jobs and businesses." The NAR is now projecting the benchmark 30-year fixed rate loan will hit 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter, and 6.7 percent by the end of 2006.

* Finally, the NAR sees home prices continuing to rise, in spite of Katrina’s damage. The national median existing-home price recently topped $200,000, and the Realtor trade group sees that price rising by 10.8 percent in 2005 to around $205,100.

"With greater concentration of construction in lower cost areas, the median new-home price should increase 3.8 percent to $229,300 this year before rising at a faster clip of 6.2 percent in 2006" Lereah projects.

According to the Realtors, the median sales price of existing single family homes in the Atlanta metropolitan area was $166,500 in the second quarter of this year, a price that is comfortably below both national and regional norms.

This leads me to believe that Atlanta is reasonably well positioned to avoid any sort of dramatic price drop that might be the result of a "bubble" bursting or any real estate downturn.

Instead, my personal prediction is that continued job creation in the metro area and a good balance between supply and demand will allow prices to rise moderately over the next year.

The Atlanta Regional Commission forecasts that as many as 2.3 million more people will move to the Atlanta region in the next 25 years. That will cause the creation of almost one million new households, with more than half of the housing units yet to be built.